NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices are rising, and U.S. stocks are falling Tuesday, but the moves are not as dramatic as the dire talk coming from both sides in the war with Iran.

President Donald Trump threatened that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” if Iran does not meet his latest self-imposed deadline at 8 p.m. Eastern time to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials, meanwhile, urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants that Trump has threatened to bomb.

But the S&P 500 slipped just 0.5% as officials involved in diplomatic efforts said talks were ongoing, even though it was unclear if a deal would come in time to head off Trump’s threatened attacks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 271 points, or 0.6%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.6% lower.

The moves were sharper in the oil market, where prices have spiked since the end of February because the war has snarled the production and transportation of crude in the Persian Gulf. Much of that oil exits the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to reach customers around the world, but Iran has blocked it to enemies.

The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude climbed 3.1% to $115.86. Brent crude, the international standard, added 0.4% to $110.17 and is well above its roughly $70 level from before the war.

The worry in markets has been that a long-term disruption will keep oil prices high for a long time and send a painful wave of inflation crashing through the global economy. Iran on Monday rejected the latest ceasefire proposal and instead said it wants a permanent end to the war.

So far in the war, Trump has made a series of threats to blow up Iranian power plants if it doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, but he has then delayed it several times. The possibility remains that Trump could back down again, among other scenarios, which is keeping uncertainty high.

A year ago, Trump ultimately backed off many of the stiff tariffs that he initially threatened to put on other countries’ imports, though they ended up higher than from before his second term.

“Investors are likely to remain on edge and markets unable to establish trends, probably until there is a clear outcome later this evening: a deal, the U.S./Israeli strikes intensify, or Iran’s retaliation becomes escalatory instead of proportional,” according to Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

In global stock markets, Universal Music Group helped to limit losses after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management offered to buy the record label behind Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $64 billion.

The proposed purchase, which Pershing Square argued would clear uncertainty that’s weighed on UMG’s stock, would bring the company to Nevada and move its stock listing from Amsterdam to the New York Stock Exchange.

UMG’s stock in Amsterdam rose 9.3% but remains well below what Pershing said its bid is worth. That could indicate investor doubt that the deal will happen.

Indexes were mixed amid mostly modest movements across Europe, while Asian stock indexes were a touch stronger. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.8% for one of the world’s bigger gains.

In the bond market, Treasury yields were holding relatively steady ahead of Trump’s looming deadline. The yield on the 10-year Treasury remained at 4.34%, where it was late Monday.

But it’s still well above its 3.97% level from before the war. The rise has pushed up rates for mortgages and other loans going to U.S. households and businesses, which slows the economy.

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AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott contributed.