LAS VEGAS (AP) — President Donald Trump is betting that the tax cuts he signed into law last year will resonate with voters in Las Vegas, where he intends to highlight a key Republican message for this year’s elections in remarks Thursday.

Workers who earn tips and overtime are seeing bigger returns this tax season, but those savings and others resulting from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” that Trump signed last year have been eaten away by higher gas pricesdriven by the Iran war.

The president’s rare trip out West comes as Trump faces growing political pressure to wrap up the war and focus on a message that helps his party as they try to defend their congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections. Trump insisted before departing from the White House for Las Vegas that gas prices were “not very high” compared with what he thought they would be because of the Iran war.

On Friday, Trump will hold an event in Phoenix with conservative political group Turning Point USA. But his first stop is in Las Vegas where he will hold a roundtable with several police officers who have benefited from new tax breaks on overtime, along with a barber and a casino pit supervisor, who got to claim the new tax breaks on tips.

The Treasury Department said Wednesday that the average tax refund this year has been over $3,400, up about $340 from a year ago.

Vegas, once known for affordable living, feels economic pain

Trump has said he first conceived of his “no tax on tips” in Las Vegas, a city where entertainment is the financial lifeblood and many workers depend on gratuities from visitors.

But it’s also a city of commuters, including the tipped workers who drive to their jobs at glitzy casinos. Gasoline is averaging $5 a gallon in Las Vegas, up 28% from a year ago, according to AAA.

Nicholas Delaney, an airline attendant who lives in the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson and said he did not vote for the president in 2024, said he thinks Trump is doing a “terrible” job when it comes to the cost of living. He thought the tax break for tips was a good policy, but is concerned about the cost of groceries and gas.

“I gotta spend over $100 for a full tank of gas, 13 gallons? Crazy,” Delaney said.

Paula Goodman, a bartender in a Henderson casino, said the cost of living is her biggest concern right now, adding that she spends more than $400 a week on groceries for her family.

But Goodman, who voted for the president, said she thought he is “doing a pretty good damn job,” and doesn’t blame him for high gas prices, which she portrayed as just a fluctuation. As a bartender, she said she personally appreciated the tax savings on tips she brings home.

“Every little penny nowadays is, like, huge,” she said. “You’ve seen diesel, right? $6.11.”

Tax refunds are offset by gas prices

The White House said Trump is focused on tax cuts, deregulation and boosting U.S. energy production to drive down prices, and describes high gas prices as a temporary disruption from the war in Iran.

“Tens of millions of Americans are benefiting this tax season from the president’s signature provisions” in the tax law, said White House spokesman Kush Desai, saying that shows “how the administration hasn’t lost focus on delivering on our affordability agenda at home.”

Even so, the conflict has made things less affordable. The Bank of America Institute looked at its deposit and spending data and in a Tuesday analysis concluded that “the average increase in tax refunds could cover the average increase in gasoline spending for at least five months.”

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, the insurance and financial services company, said last week in an analysis that “the steep rise in gasoline prices looks likely to completely offset the increased tax funds windfall with households,” stressing that the money back would likely prevent a sharper drop in consumer spending.

Trump's economic message focusing on the tax breaks has also been drowned out this week by distractions from the president himself, who angered even some of his own supporters when he got into a public fight with the pope and posted a now-deleted image on social media depicting himself as Jesus.

GOP strategist Ron Bonjean said among Republicans, “the frustration and concern is growing every week about whether or not we will be able to hold onto the House this November.”

It takes a lot of repetition for a message like promoting the tax bill to break through to voters, but Trump’s tendency to drift into other subjects can dilute that, Bonjean said. Trump, who has at times dismissed affordability concerns as “a hoax,” and “con job” from Democrats, has to acknowledge the economic realities people are facing now if he wants to help his party this November, Bonjean said.

“He absolutely has to talk about his plan to bring down high gasoline costs, or else he’s lost his own message. It won’t be credible just to talk about no taxes on tips,” Bonjean said.

When will gas prices come down?

While the president has said he thinks the war with Iran will end soon, a deal to resolve it has not yet emerged, with the U.S. and Iran still proffering stances that are far apart.

Trump on Sunday said in a Fox News Channel interview that gas prices “could be the same or maybe a little bit higher” by the November midterms.

By Wednesday, in another Fox News interview, Trump walked back that comment. “I think they'll be much lower” before the election, on the assumption the war will be long over.

“When that’s settled, gas prices are going to go down tremendously,” Trump said.

Hours later at the White House, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was less rosy, predicting that gas prices will fall sometime this summer, depending on how the negotiations with Iran go.

“I’m optimistic that sometime between June 20th and September 20th, that we can have $3 gas again,” Bessent told reporters.

Joe Spica, a Democratic candidate for the state legislature and a steward of The Culinary Workers Union, which represents about 60,000 hospitality workers in Las Vegas and Reno, said Las Vegas workers are feeling belt-tightening that is happening all over, because that means fewer visitors to Las Vegas, and fewer tips for workers.

“Something has to change, and it has to change fast,” Spica, a bellman at the Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, said at a news conference Thursday organized by the union and the Nevada Democratic Party.

“The policies of this administration are hurting Las Vegas,” he said.

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Associated Press writer Josh Boak in Washington contributed to this report.